31 July 2006
Written by Jakob
Israel getting cold feet?
So, the Israelis have agreed to a 48-hour pause in aerial operations (kind of, anyway – they can still bomb away at “targets preparing attacks”). What does this mean? I, sitting in a warm, safe (but boring) call centre several hundred miles away, obviously have no idea. But speculating is fun, isn’t it? So let’s!
- First of all, Hizbullah are pretty good at fighting. Extraordinarily good, even. This gives them a breather and the chance to rally their troops, raise morale and resupply. There’s no reason to believe that they won’t make good use of this time, considering how formidable a foe they appear to have been earlier in the conflict. This really can’t be what IDF wants, can it? They might end up paying dearly for this if they want to resume operations.
- This leaves Hizbullah with a choice. They can respect the ceasefire, and bring an end, if only temporary, to the aerial war (note that ground operations seem unaffected by this, and the Israeli’s appear to still be flying close-air support missions). OR they can keep sending rockets into Israel.
- If I was Nasrallah, I’d pick the former option. Here’s why: Hizbullah’s strength is in it’s support amongst the local population. They’re seen as freedom fighters, not terrorists. Keeping this legitimacy is vital for them to continue enjoying such affection, not only locally but around the world. Honouring the ceasefire would give them a glossy facade of shiny respectability; they’re being an equal part in the conflict rather than just evil-doers and terrorists. And besides, they’d be well prepared for renewed hostilities if that turns out to be the case.
- If Hizbullah respects the ceasefire and stops pounding northern Israel, Ehud Olmert will be the one who has to take full responsibility for renewed bombing, which would lead to Hizbullah going back to their rockets. Olmert would ALSO have to accept responsibility for sending in IDF units against an enemy who has been given two days leeway to prepare. I doubt that would boost his popularity polls back home.
If Sheikh Nasrallah plays this smartly (as I would!), he can secure not only two days of rebuilding his troops for the battle ahead, but also a moral victory as well as even more political legitimacy. Then, he would be an equal party in the conflict, a responsible commander rather than just a perpetrator or war crimes (sending rockets over the border is a war crime, no question about that). It would be harder to refuse negotiations with him under those circumstances. He would also make it harder for Israel to start over again, since Ehud Olmert’s support would be severly diminished if he first provokes Hizbullah to start bombing again, and then sends in the Israeli army against the world’s best 4th generation warfare organization after having given them two days of rest and re-focus.
The more I think about it, the more it seems like this could be what the Israelis are looking for. Either they get an (undistinguished) end to hostilities, or they prove once and for all the Hizbullah are terrorists and the drivers in the conflict. If Hizbullah keeps the rocket barrages up, Israel would be able to say what they’ve been saying the whole time, but now with a faint shroud of plausibility. I guess it’s naive on my part, but I really hope that Sheikh Nasrallah has the balls to resist his hardliners and instead settle for the victory he’s already won. But, since this is the middle-East, I guess they’ll be back to killing each other in no time at all.
Hey, just a quick comment on: “Hizbullah’s strength is in it’s support amongst the local population.” Yup. I remember this conversation I was having with some university students in Beirut about Hizbullah once. The quote of the evening was “Israel may rule the skies, but Hizbullah rules the ground”. The are well liked, and well respected. They also do a lot for the poorer sections of society, making the a sorta popular Robin Hood figure in some places.